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From
sleeping at the office to scanning the brains of consumers,
and from green-goo panic to helicopter parents... the
next 12 months promises to bring a revolution in the
way we work, rest and play. Here, in no particular order,
we explain the thinking behind the jargon.
Corrina
Dean, Chloë Diski, John Hind, Oliver James, Jim
McClellan, Harvey McGavin, Niru Ratnam, Tom Templeton
and Ian Tucker
Sunday December 28, 2003
The Observer
1.
The well-slept society
Meaning?
Time to wake up to the sleep deprivation our economy
is suffering from
In other words...
Dozing, sleeping, when the mind is relaxing - these
are times when your brain is at its most inventive.
So in theory, the value of sleep should increase in
a modern economy such as ours, which is driven by innovation
rather than labour. But as James Wilsden, of the think-tank
Demos, notes: 'The culture of modern work, especially
in large companies, is premised on an attack on sleep,
which is stigmatised as little more than wasteful downtime.'
Demos suggests banning breakfast meetings, introducing
office hammock bays, sleep days to allow people to replenish
their levels, corporate siestas and 'dormitoriums' -
sleep drop-in centres (one already exists in Berlin).
In fact, George Bush, much criticised for his midday
power naps, could be a pioneer - in this area, at least.
2. The end of loneliness
Meaning?
Making new friends by using social networking services,
like Friendster
In other words...
Social networking services (SNS) use social network
analysis (eg, the 'Six Degrees of Separation' idea)
to help people hook up with like-minded others, for
business, pleasure and much else. The big SNS 'word
of mouse' success is Friendster, a sort of hipster dating
network that lets you build social networks from friends,
friends of friends and beyond. In theory, such applications
allow us to bond with people who aren't quite strangers
and aren't quite friends either, therefore multiplying
the opportunities to make new pals in a relatively easy
way.
Jonathan Abrams, CEO of Friendster, sees his site as
a way for users to enrich their offline life. But others
have noted how technology has outstripped our physical
ability to manage our social lives. Duncan Watts, assistant
professor at Columbia University's sociology department,
notes that our biology may only be wired to look out
for family and close friends. Our online persona may
be flogging unwanted books on eBay, but our offline
persona can't be bothered to wrap them up and take them
to the post office.
3. Neuromarketing
Meaning?
Focus groups are passé. Next, marketing people
will be scanning our brains to find out what we 'really
think'
In other words...
Using functional Magnetic Resonance Imaging (fMRI),
researchers map the brain chemicals of test subjects
as they taste a new soft drink or look at new product
packaging. The idea is that the resulting brain scans
will show how people really feel and so help companies
tweak their brand image/ad campaign. Hence 'neuromarketing'.
Experts have cautioned against the simplistic appliance
of neuroscience. But with interest in 'neuroeconomics'
(scanning people's brains as they make economic choices)
and 'neuroethics' (mapping brain changes as people make
moral decisions) developing, 'social neuroscience' seems
likely to grow in influence.
4. Supermarket nation
Meaning?
Check out that revolt in the aisles
In other words...
Naomi Klein's No Logo didn't just bring the anti-capitalist
movement to the world's attention; it alerted publishers
to the potential profitability of taking pot shots at
corporate culture. So far, though, George Monbiot aside,
the post-No Logo genre has been dominated by Americans
(eg, Michael Moore and Eric Fast Food Nation Schlosser).
Next year sees the publication of several home-grown
anti-corporate books, in particular Joanna Blythman's
Shopped - The Shocking Truth About British Supermarkets
(Fourth Estate). 'We all moan about supermarkets,' says
Blythman.
'I wanted to go beyond that, to ask what the supermarkets
really get up to and how that affects real people.'
That makes Shopped (the product of a two-year investigation)
sound like a British version of Fast Food Nation. 'I
would never claim to be as good as Eric Schlosser,'
she says. Still, her approach is similarly wide-ranging,
covering the way supermarkets have changed not just
our diets, but also our cities, countryside and economy.
Are we likely to see the rise of an anti-supermarket
movement over the next few years? 'I think there is
a deep reservoir of serious discontent with supermarkets
among consumers,' says Blythman. 'I liken it to a bad
marriage. You're in the relationship for years and then
something happens and you suddenly think, "Why
did I put up with this for so long?" We're at that
stage with supermarkets.'
5. Get back on the couch
Meaning?
2004 will be the year of new evidence that madness should
be treated and prevented by talking therapies before
drugs
In other words...
After decades of increasingly deterministic geneticism,
it is fast becoming apparent that the studies of identical
twins on which estimates of heritability are based are
not reliable, as demonstrated in American psychologist
Jay Joseph's new book The Gene Illusion. This is in
accord with Genome Project supremo Craig Venter's claim
that the remarkably few number of human genes (25,000)
suggests that individual differences in our psychology
are unlikely to be very genetic.
At a conference to be held in January at Coventry University,
Joseph and clinical psychologists Richard Bentall and
Mary Boyle will call on psychiatrists to rethink their
treatments, to re-examine the place of the environment
in madness and to acknowledge that the categories into
which they put their patients are no longer scientifically
defensible as discrete categories.
6. The pro-am economy
Meaning?
It's not the letters after your name, it's the skills
in your game
In other words...
In 2004, 'amateur' will no longer be a term of derision
- you should take it to mean you're dedicated, educated
and open to new ideas. Where would society be without
magistrates, the TA, lifeboat people and classroom assistants?
Moreover, in some fields amateurs are leading the way,
for example self-builders, astronomy, or self-publishing
'bloggers', such as Baghdad's Salam Pax. As Charlie
Leadbeater from Demos argues, 'ProAms are set to play
a more prominent role in innovation.'
The ProAm movement is spilling into the political sphere.
Leadbeater cites amateur politicians such as the Netherlands's
Pim Fortuyn and the fuel protesters, 'who have had a
destabilising impact on establishment politics'. Not
to mention, of course, al-Qaeda, who, seen through the
ProAm prism, are 'an example of an amateur organisation
challenging better-resourced professionals'.
Which goes to show that, in 2004, you should sit up
and take notice of ProAms - we're not talking golf events
with Jimmy Tarbuck any more.
7. The kidult
Meaning?
The continuing upward expansion of the youth demographic
In other words...
Longer life expectancy, women having children later
in life, the rise in single households, the need for
escapism and a culture obsession with youth are all
driving the extension of the parameters of youth from
the 20s into the 30s.
All the indications are there that consumers in their
late 20s, 30s and 40s are taking more fluid attitudes
to age-sensitive tastes and behaviours.
Historically, attitudes towards childhood are seen as
a sign of the advancement of civilisation. If the 19th
century saw the discovery of childhood and the 20th
century the discovery of the teenager, then the 21st
could mark the age of the 'kidult', or the perpetual
youth. 'This is a theory which, if it continued into
the future, would lead to the inevitable conclusion
of human beings living in a perpetual state of childhood/
infantilism, like the society depicted in Logan's Run,'
says Richard Welch, leading-edge analyst at Ogilvy &
Mather New York. Today, the average age of Sony PlayStation
users in the US is now 29, with something like 17 per
cent of users over 50.
8. The two-income trap
Meaning?
Having two incomes is a necessity, but also a liability
In other words...
When only one partner worked, if things got tight the
non-working partner could always get a job. Now, if
a family loses one income, they're in trouble.
The Two-Income Trap, written by Harvard law professor
Elizabeth Warren and her daughter, Amelia Warren Tyagi,
reveals that, these days, families need both parents
to work just to afford a middle-class lifestyle. As
a result, they're dangerously over-extended.
The book grew from research that showed that 'a family
with children is nearly three times more likely to file
for bankruptcy than a household with no minor children
at home'. Warren dismisses the popular explanation for
this - 'the over-consumption myth'. Families aren't
going broke because of luxury fever and lattes, she
says. The problem is increasingly high fixed costs (mortgages,
school/ college fees and health insurance) and the rapacious
tactics of the credit industry, with sub-prime lending
(lending money to families already in financial trouble)
particularly to blame.
Families should anticipate the worst financial blows
they could receive, says Warren, 'and plot out their
emergency escape routes. And the data are unmistakable:
families are increasingly likely to face hard times.'
9. No frills cruising
Meaning?
Floating hotels meet camping
In other words...
The transportation choice of dowagers and lounge lizards
is about to be sold to backpackers and large families
as a cheap, efficient way of island-hopping across the
Med and the Caribbean. With berths from £29 per
night, easyCruise, the latest Stelios Haji-Ioannou wheeze,
is scheduled to set sail this summer.
Forget all-expenses-paid trips for a set length of time,
crooners, quoits and dining at the captain's table.
Instead, you can stay as many or as few nights as you
like and buy food and drink from 'on-board concessionaires'.
Bedding and toiletries will be available for purchase
if you fail to bring your own and you must clean your
orange fibreglass cabin to avoid the £20 'cleaning
charge'.
Many passengers are expected to take the opportunity
to sleep as they chug from, say, Barcelona to Genoa,
or Barbados to St Lucia overnight, then get off and
not look back. But isn't that what they call a ferry?
10. Spies 'r' us
Meaning?
Surveillance used to be mainly a 'top-down' thing -
the preserve of government and business. But things
are changing
In other words...
New technologies are creating a world of distributed,
decentralised surveillance. In particular, the spread
of camera phones means we're all potentially spies.
'You can't draw a clear distinction between the subjects
of surveillance and those who employ surveillance any
more. Increasingly, we are all both,' says MIT Media
Lab's William J Mitchell (author of Me ++: The Cyborg
Self and the Networked City, a guide to the socio-cultural
effects of mobile/wireless networks).
'The powerless can sometimes turn surveillance against
the powerful, as with the Rodney King videotape,' says
Mitchell. For example, last month, American hip-hop
fans at a gig in Portland took camphone snaps of a police
car with a large toy gorilla attached to the front.
The pictures were made public, sparking investigations
into police racism, with the media dubbing the camphone
users 'cellphone vigilantes'.
11. Green goo panic
Meaning?
The end is nigh!
In other words...
Prince Charles made headlines in 2003 when he raised
concerns about nanotechnology and got in a tizz about
'grey goo' - the result of nanoscale (atom-sized) mechanical
robots self-replicating uncontrollably and munching
the entire biosphere into a robotic ooze.
ETC, a Canadian watchdog group for socially responsible
technology, argues we should be more concerned about
goo of a green hue - the result of nanobiotechnology.
The commercial logic runs thus: why bother constructing
self-replicating mechanical robots when self-replicating
biomaterials are readily available all around: ie, the
birds, the bees, us. What we need to do is reorganise
nature - ie, invent new life forms. Projects are underway
to write DNA as easily as computer code (have you seen
The Matrix?) and add a fifth letter to DNA, therefore
multiplying the diversity of life.
Ron Weiss, an electrical engineer at Princeton, thinks
he may be able to turn living cells into robots that
could, for example, build houses or repair damaged organs.
He has already 'birthed' a couple of beakers of cellular
robots that can communicate with each other and light
up in sequence. Of course, these cyborg organisms will
need to eat and reproduce - and they appear to be capable
of exponential self-replication. Experts predict that
it would take about two days for the nanobiobots to
outweigh the Earth.
12. Sweet heat
Meaning?
The combination of sweet and hot flavours
In other words...
As a sweet-toothed and curry-loving nation, it was only
a matter of time until Britain got a taste for Sweet
Heat. Peter Gordon, head chef at London's Providores,
is the UK's King of Sweet Heat: 'People are sometimes
wary of combinations like chilli quince with mascarpone
or with sherry and honey,' he says, 'but they are now
becoming more accustomed to the flavour.'
Products such as Altu's Peanut, Cashew & Thai Sweet
Chilli bar and Walker's Sensations Thai Sweet Chilli
flavour have really taken off, while Rococo chocolates
recently introduced chilli truffles, which are now one
of their top five best-sellers. Nigel Slater, a Rococo's
chilli truffle fan, says: 'The chilli chocolate is a
revelation, but then chocolate used to be spicy. The
Aztecs spiced it up with cinnamon and chilli, and orange
peel, too.'
Anthony Bourdain, author of Kitchen Confidential, has
a slightly cooler reaction to the sweet heat fix (it's
big in the US): 'Jacking chocolate with chillies is
a delightfully incendiary departure from the concept
of chocolate as an indulgence, into the joyously sado-masochistic.'
13. Helicopter parents
Meaning?
They think they know best, but maybe they should back
off
In other words...
You probably know a helicopter parent or two. Perhaps
you are one yourself. These days, it's hard not to be.
It's hard not to hover over your kids constantly, hard
to not buzz round them obsessively, hard not to be the
overprotective over-parent. After all, it's a cruel,
competitive world out there. Your kids need you to look
out for them.
Frank Furedi, professor of sociology at Kent University
and author of Paranoid Parenting, says 'helicopter parents'
are now dominating interviews so much that universities
design promotional literature more for them than for
prospective students. Parents, says Furedi, 'have lost
confidence in their instincts. They've been told that
things are more complicated than they think, that the
first three years of a child's life is make or break
and if you screw up it's all downhill. This creates
"parental determinism", the idea that everything
that happens to your child is the direct consequence
of what you do as parents. Over-parenting is an obvious
way of handling that pressure.'
14. Notschool
Meaning?
A school for kids who don't fit into the mainstream
In other words...
Children who are bullied, excluded, disaffected, chronically
ill, phobic or under police protection all meet the
admissions criteria of Notschool, an online learning
environment piloted by Ultralab, the IT and education
innovators at Anglia Polytechnic University.
Pupils are called 'researchers' because the ways in
which they like to learn inform the website's non-hierarchical,
signposted design. Teachers are 'mentors' and Notschool-leavers
stay online as 'buddies' to the new kids.
'We are providing a safe learning environment for young
people who have nowhere else to go,' says Jean Johnson,
Notschool's project director. 'And we reawaken their
desire to learn.' The initial pilot intake of 100 Notschoolers
has recently been upped to 600 in 17 local education
authorities and new Notschools are planned for New Zealand,
Australia and the Netherlands. And after Notschool?
Well, there's another Ultralab invention - Ultraversity.
15. The program
Meaning?
Using Harvard Business School techniques to find a husband
In other words...
January sees the publication of the UK edition of Harvard
MBA graduate Rachel Greenwald's American bestseller,
The Program: How To Find A Husband After Thirty. Greenwald
describes a 15-step programme, nine of which include
the word 'marketing'. You learn how to 'package' yourself,
use 'mass marketing' methods to meet more men, and adopt
'exit interviews' - getting a friend to contact unsuccessful
dates for feedback and ring-fencing 10-20 per cent of
your income for husband-finding activities.
The Program is the rebound to the coquettish The Rules.
As Greenwald says, 'This is not about the fairy tale.
It is the realisation of being a single woman and taking
matters into your own hands.'
16. Spiritual art
Meaning?
Britart gets religion
In other words...
As ever, it's easiest to blame Damien Hirst. Those who
this year flocked to his exhibition Romance in the Age
of Uncertainty were treated to quasi-spiritualism of
º ª the highest order - the main installation
featured the apostles and Christ, while the whole thing
was laid out in the formation of a church.
Meanwhile, down at the National Gallery, Bill Viola's
The Passions exhibition featured actors in agonised
slow-motion religious reveries.
The movement looks well set to continue next year. Hirst,
along with fellow ex-young Brit artists Angus Fairhurst
and Sarah Lucas, will explore the big themes in the
Tate exhibition In-A-Gadda-Da-Vida. That the title of
the show is the bastardised phrase of the Garden of
Eden originally coined by a psychedelic rock group suggests
that this is going to be a somewhat skewed take on the
spiritual. Meanwhile, Mark Wallinger, maker of the life-like
Christ that adorned the fourth plinth of Trafalgar Square
for a time, is set to open his one-person show at Anthony
Reynolds Gallery. Wallinger used to make art about class
divisions, but now his mind seems to be on higher things,
so expect more revelatory stuff.
BBC4 is screening Mark Kidel's film of Artangel's event
at the deserted village of Kimber, the centrepiece of
which featured the music of Gregorian composer Giya
Kancheli, played in the abandoned church in front of
suitably hushed art folk.
17. 'Achilles Heel' HIV vaccine
Meaning?
A universal vaccine for HIV/Aids might be closer than
you think
In other words...
The major problem with creating an Aids vaccine is that
due to the high mutation rates of the virus there are
many strains.
Dr Anne De Groot, director of the TB/HIV Research Laboratory
at Brown University in the US, believes she has found
the HIV virus's Achilles heel - the parts it cannot
mutate, since they are essential to its function. This
is known as an epitope-based vaccine - epitopes are
the pieces of protein that stimulate the immune system.
Her team are testing their vaccine on mice and should
begin human trials in 2005.
Groot is not the only one working on epitope-based vaccines,
but other people aren't working on a cross-strain variety
- they might only work on the strain common in the US,
for example. As Groot states, 'The nice thing about
these epitopes I've found is that they'll work no matter
where you are'.
18. Wellness polarisation
Meaning?
While the healthier get healthier, the sick get sicker
In other words...
There is an increasing divide between those who are
health conscious or health obsessed and those who are
oblivious to or unconcerned with health risks.
Strathclyde University research confirmed in November
that Britons are drinking more and more, while concurrently
noting an increase in those abstaining. Polarisation
is also ongoing between users of traditional and alternative
medicine, between the slimmest and the plumpest and
between 'chronic junk-food eaters' and 'health fascists'.
Further research will show how many people, hidden within
these trends, are 'Trans-Well' or have 'Zig-Zag Wellness'
- being undecided which 'healthstyle' to partake of
from one year, week or hour to the next.
19. Densification zones
Meaning?
High-rise and densification, discredited mantras of
great 20th-century architects, Le Corbusier and Mies
van der Rohe, are fast becoming the new 'isms' which
will impact on our cityscapes in the 21st century
In other words...
As Renzo Piano's Shard of Glass has been given the green
light, the tower will be the tallest addition to London's
skyline, at 1,000ft, signalling the beginning of a vertically
led development strategy for the city, albeit against
the wishes of English Heritage.
As housing shortages reach crisis point, a radical shake-up
is proposed to fast-track planning procedures and encourage
the building of housing stock. Roger Zogolovitch, developer
and professor at LSE, has come up with a radical scheme
that will remove the need for planning consent in designated
urban areas, which has been endorsed by the Royal Institute
of British Architects. Dubbed 'densification zones',
these sites would permit the building of homes in light
industrial areas, freeing up brownfield sites. Imagine
a housing development squeezed between, say, a flower
market and meat-packing factory. A welcome addition
to urban life, or could this result in a backlash of
Nimbyism from local residents?
Paul Finch, chairman of Cabe, the government's watchdog
for architectural standards on high-rises in London,
says, 'The impulse to build tall buildings will continue
to strengthen and the good news is that they will be
better designed and become to be seen as part and parcel
of city regeneration.'
20. Life chances
Meaning?
How to get even with the Scandies
In other words...
The key political concept of the coming year (and Labour's
third term) is child poverty, which Tony Blair promised
to halve by 2010 and stamp out by 2020. However, attempting
to alleviate child poverty might not necessarily improve
children's prospects. So it's vitally important to define
how poverty decreases a child's 'life chances' in the
fields of health, occupation, education and security.
Sunder Katwala, general secretary of left-wing think-tank
the Fabian Society, says: 'The Left should always audit
its success by how far class and chance determine opportunity
in Britain today.' To this end, the Fabians will be
conducting a major survey of Britain's poorer families
to see which aspects of poverty inhibit a child's 'life
chances' the most. They will also look to see what can
be borrowed from Scandinavia, where only 3 per cent
of children are in poverty (compared to just under 30
per cent here) and will hope to sell this to Middle
England by pointing out how it will cut the cost of
crime, unemployment and educational failure.
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